BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in California

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in California has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
199Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in California. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in California is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.17–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in California is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.17–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.435.1
20272.70.365.0
20282.60.305.0
20292.60.234.9
20302.50.174.8

Killdeer Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Killdeer in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Atwater5720121971
Dorris4220191972
Glenn3020251971
Likely2920251971
Athlone2520071972
Shafter2219891971
Buena Vista2220191990
Cordova2119811971
Tracy 21820242010
Orland1720221972
Poway1519801973
Collegeville1420041968
Hughson1420251968
Niland1420251973
Ora Loma1320251972
Iron Gate1320191988
Ingalls1220251973
Alamo River1120181974
Imperial Dam1120101973
Tranquillity1120241972
Zamora1120251972
Staten Is.1120251994
Nubieber1020181970
Caruthers1019871972
Colma919721969

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.