BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Nevada

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Nevada has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nevada is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nevada is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.006.3
20273.00.006.3
20283.10.006.3
20293.10.006.3
20303.10.006.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Killdeer in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon1520251992
Carson River1020052001
Calico Spr919731969
Charleston Reservoir920242024
Gardnerville 2820252013
Fish Creek720211997
Gardnerville720121992
Vya619741968
Dinner Sta619931968
Piute Mdws520252005
Toiyabe Nf520241987
Ruby Valley520011997
Eureka420141968
Mill City420232013
Humboldt Nf 2420252021
Oreana420032002
Midas320251974
Rye Patch319871968
Cortez320251969
Frenchman319731973
Majors Place320251968
Sand Pass220251987
Ruby Valley 2220212006
Willis220251994
Virgin Creek220181995

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.