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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Kansas

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Kansas has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.15.812
20269.15.812
20279.15.812
20289.15.912
20299.15.912

Killdeer Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Killdeer in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plymell4320242000
Missler3920191975
St John2620191967
Albert1720241967
Hodges1520142000
Barclay1320241967
Jamestown1320242000
Damar1320162000
Covert1220241967
Berwet1220242000
Jewell 21220242006
Gray1120191967
Wellington1020241968
Hays920141967
Minneapolis920191967
Jewell920051967
Beloit 2920182005
Solomon920191982
Thrall819701967
Grantville820221967
Seneca820221967
Logan820221967
Ash Valley820192000
Severance820242000
Leoville720171967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.