BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Kansas

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Kansas has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kansas is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kansas is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.05.812
20279.05.812
20289.15.812
20299.15.812
20309.15.812

Killdeer Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Killdeer in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Missler3920191975
St John2620191967
Albert2120251967
Logan1720251967
Berwet1620252000
Hodges1520142000
Morehead1320252000
Plymell1320252000
Damar1320162000
Solomon1320251982
Gray1120191967
Jamestown1120252000
Wellington1020251968
Hollenberg1020251969
Galesburg920251967
Ellinor920251967
Hays920141967
Minneapolis920191967
Jewell920051967
Beloit 2920182005
Thrall819701967
Coats820251967
Kanopolis820251967
Grantville820221967
Seneca820221967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.