BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Montana

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Montana has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Montana. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.19–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.19–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.515.9
20273.10.435.9
20283.10.355.8
20293.00.275.7
20302.90.195.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Killdeer in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.2120251995
Westby1920252015
Harlem1820211968
Church Hill1720252017
Clyde Park1720252018
Shawmut1220251979
Powderville1120251968
Albion1120251982
Fort Logan1120252018
Circle1020231969
Willow Creek1019811972
Whitlash1020242009
Custer920222019
Roy820251988
Webster820251978
Miles City820252015
Wheat Basin820252017
St Mary720081968
Two Dot720251976
Sun River720252015
Victor720251993
Oswego620251978
Redstone620251968
Chinook620252015
Coleman Coulee620242017

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.