BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Montana

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Montana has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Montana. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Montana is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.20–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Montana is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.20–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.536.0
20263.20.455.9
20273.10.365.8
20283.00.285.7
20292.90.205.7

Killdeer Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Killdeer in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.2520241995
Harlem1820211968
Willow Creek 21620241982
Shawmut1520241979
Dinosaurs H.M.1520242018
Wheat Basin1420242017
Two Dot1220241976
Highwood1120241968
Laurel1120221968
Kalispell1020241968
Cleveland1020241979
Circle1020231969
Willow Creek1019811972
Whitlash1020242009
Wolf Creek1020222015
Cabin Creek1020242018
Redstone920241968
Leroy920241970
Chinook920242015
Westby920242015
Custer920222019
Raynesford820242016
Fort Logan820242018
St Mary720081968
Hay Lake720221988

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.