BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Oregon

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.9
20261.10.002.8
20270.990.002.8
20280.910.002.7
20290.820.002.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Killdeer in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Umatilla5620231988
Ordnance2519791971
Sparta2020011971
Catlow Rim1520241993
Merrill1420221993
Alvord Lake1220241968
Sheaville1220242012
Zumwalt1220051995
Willow Spg1119711969
Bly1020011973
Coquille920221995
Deschutes820241968
Bridgeport820221986
Crowley820241983
Pendleton820241978
Adrian820211984
Bly 2820242007
Salem720241993
Trout Creek720211996
Adair620241971
Joseph620241971
Dayton620241974
Emigrant Lk620011972
Harney Lake620241993
Albee520241968

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.