BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Iowa

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Iowa has surged: up 669% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+669%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Iowa: up 668% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Iowa is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Iowa is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262130
2026262130
2027262231
2028272231
2029272332

Killdeer Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Killdeer in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Valley6819971968
Tipton5420241993
Gaza5220231969
Davis Corner3820241968
Mccallsburg3720241996
Zearing3519951967
Festina3520241969
Kanawha3420241967
Dinsdale3120241968
Burchinal2420241995
Red Rock2320241968
West Liberty2220241968
Panther2220241967
Titonka2220241968
Melrose2120241974
Wales2120181972
Rock Valley2020241968
Bryant1820241967
Lafayette1820242003
Brooklyn1620221967
Mt Hamill1520241967
Maquoketa1520241967
Scranton1520241967
Washington1320241967
Alice1319991967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.