BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Iowa

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Iowa has surged: up 703% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+703%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Iowa: up 703% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Iowa is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Iowa is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026262130
2027262231
2028272231
2029272231
2030272332

Killdeer Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Killdeer in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Valley6819971968
Davis Corner6220251968
Mccallsburg6020251996
Bryant5320251967
Tipton4420251993
Brooklyn4120251967
Kanawha3820251967
Gaza3820251969
Titonka3720251968
Zearing3519951967
Festina3220251969
Prairieburg2520251967
Hudson2520251967
Scranton2520251967
Rock Valley2420251968
Pierson2320251968
West Liberty2220251968
Mt Hamill2020251967
Panther1820251967
Washta1820251967
Burchinal1820251995
Wales1420251972
Maquoketa1320251967
Alice1319991967
College Spgs1220041967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.