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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Missouri

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Missouri has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+241%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Missouri: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Missouri is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Missouri is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.45.411
20268.45.511
20278.55.511
20288.65.612
20298.75.712

Killdeer Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Killdeer in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stet5419951973
Kahoka23420242002
Hayti3120212016
Emden2920242017
Hamilton2319851972
Kennett2320242015
Deventer2120241967
Kahoka2119981969
Luray1720242015
Cp Girardeau1620241967
Rensselaer1620241971
Sticklervill1620241971
Bolckow1619921967
Norborne1620232006
Laclede1520241994
Lucerne1320212016
Blodgett1320242013
Danville1220241967
Cole Camp1219901971
Millwood1220241999
Madison1120241973
Frankford1120241985
Queen City1020222017
Whitewater920241996
Sedalia920241991

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.