BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Missouri

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Missouri has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+221%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Missouri: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Missouri is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Missouri is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.25.211
20278.35.311
20288.45.311
20298.45.411
20308.55.512

Killdeer Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Killdeer in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stet5419951973
Lucerne3520252016
Kahoka23420242002
Hayti3120212016
Deventer2920251967
Emden2920242017
Blodgett2920252013
Hamilton2319851972
Cp Girardeau2120251967
Kahoka2119981969
Millwood1820251999
Bolckow1619921967
Norborne1620232006
Luray1520252015
Sticklervill1420251971
Frankford1320251985
Kennett1320252015
Cole Camp1219901971
Trenton1220251967
Laclede1220251994
Rensselaer1120251971
Madison1120241973
Kirksville1120251994
Danville1020251967
Queen City1020222017

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.