BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Vermont

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Vermont has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in Vermont: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Vermont is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±686.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Vermont is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.002.3
20260.270.002.3
20270.200.002.2
20280.140.002.1
20290.080.002.1

Killdeer Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Killdeer in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg719941966
Waterville619801969
S Wallingfrd320131966
Middlesex320191969
Gaysville220191967
East Calais220131966
Newbury219951986
Marlboro119701967
North Pownal120051967
Stratton120171973
Landgrove120191966
S Reading120111966
Post Mills120161975
Shaftsbury120091966
W Rutland120241966
St Johnsbury120241970
East Haven120161966
Northfld Fls120111980
Hardwick120131966
Greensboro120191967
Fletcher120241968
Colchester120191986
Grand Isle120171967
Newbury 2120102010
Stowe120051988

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.