BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in New Hampshire has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in New Hampshire: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.97
20270.000.000.97
20280.000.000.97
20290.000.000.97
20300.000.000.97

Killdeer Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Killdeer in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fitzwilliam220231967
Mt Chocorua219951970
Crawford Not219711971
Dixvil Notch220031967
Peterborough119991966
Brentwood119871970
Dover120191966
Hopkinton120191971
Epsom120251969
Concord120131969
Strafford120141973
Canterbury120231966
Gilmantn I W120181972
Wilmot120011971
Walpole120151969
Marlow120251966
Lempster120081973
Jefferson Hl120091967
Franconia120101967
Milan120061967
Stratford120041966
Clarksville120131967
Glen120021980
East Kingston120251999
Jeffers Ntch119981998

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.