BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in New Hampshire has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in New Hampshire: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.98
20260.000.000.98
20270.000.000.98
20280.000.000.98
20290.000.000.98

Killdeer Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Killdeer in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fitzwilliam220231967
Epsom220211969
Mt Chocorua219951970
Marlow220211966
Crawford Not219711971
Dixvil Notch220031967
Peterborough119991966
Brentwood119871970
Dover120191966
Hopkinton120191971
Concord120131969
Strafford120141973
Canterbury120231966
Gilmantn I W120181972
Wilmot120011971
Walpole120151969
Lempster120081973
Jefferson Hl120091967
Franconia120101967
Milan120061967
Stratford120041966
Clarksville120131967
Glen120021980
East Kingston120241999
Jeffers Ntch119981998

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.