BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in West Virginia has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.152.5
20271.30.132.5
20281.30.112.4
20291.30.092.4
20301.20.072.4

Killdeer Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Killdeer in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee1519791966
Pt Pleasant1220251973
Mt Storm1019751966
Hubbardstown820231990
Yellow Spg820221972
Bismark720221976
Monongah720221967
Hix620251970
Meadland520251997
Albright419741966
Pedro320251979
Bramwell320231978
Green Bank320241977
Rockport320251966
Josephs Mill320241995
Clinton320251966
Ringgold320252025
Henderson320182002
Ghent220251979
Spencer220241986
Paradise220251967
Valley Head220231966
Denmar220251980
Richwood220251980
Sugar Grove220141970

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.