BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Nebraska has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+137%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Nebraska: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nebraska is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nebraska is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.616
2027127.716
2028127.816
2029127.916
2030128.016

Killdeer Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Killdeer in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surprise4020251969
Belvidere3120251968
Paxton3020161967
Kenesaw2820251967
Richland2820251968
Hampton2320252018
Sumner2120251968
Sparta2120251967
Gretna 22020252019
Gretna1820181967
Tilden1820252019
Madison1820252018
Culbertson1720252024
Table1620251973
Ponca1620252018
Murdock1520252018
Kearney1420251968
Chambers1320252023
Liberty1220031967
Dalton1220251968
Swan Lake1220251969
Crescent Lk1220251980
Liberty 21220072004
Petersburg1120251969
Brownlee1120251990

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.