BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Nebraska has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+126%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Nebraska: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.716
2026127.816
2027127.916
2028128.016
2029128.117

Killdeer Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Killdeer in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kenesaw3520241967
Surprise3520241969
Belvidere3420241968
Paxton3020161967
Richland2620241968
Gretna 22420242019
Piester Lake2320241967
Kearney2120241968
Sumner2120241968
Lyons2120242018
Hampton2120242018
Gretna1820181967
Table1620241973
Crescent Lk1520171980
Brownlee1520241990
Hay Springs1420242018
Tilden1420242019
Stratton1320241975
Wheeler Co1320241978
Liberty1220031967
Liberty 21220072004
Kennedy1120241976
Murray Lake1120241987
Champion1120182018
Winside 21120222005

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.