BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Utah

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Utah has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Utah. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Utah is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Utah is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.9
20261.20.003.8
20271.20.003.8
20281.10.003.8
20291.10.003.7

Killdeer Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Killdeer in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River2120231992
Goshen820241968
Neponset Res820181995
Delta720241987
Hanna720242001
Lynn620231982
Randolph520241992
E. Bear Lake520221995
Wellington 3420242013
Wendover420111971
Promontory420241969
Beck419871973
Castle Dale420231993
Hardware Ranch420171995
Goose Creek Mtn.420191997
Kamas420241997
Willow Creek320011997
Castleton319851969
Uintah Nf319941987
Cleveland320192016
Leamington320161992
Snowville320241999
Crawford Mts320152002
Grizzly Rdge220221987
Dragerton220181969

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.