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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Utah

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Utah has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Utah: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Utah is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Utah is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.8
20271.20.003.8
20281.20.003.8
20291.10.003.8
20301.10.003.7

Killdeer Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Killdeer in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River3420251992
Kamas920251997
Neponset Res820181995
Hanna720242001
Promontory620251969
Alton 2620252025
Lynn520251982
Randolph520251992
E. Bear Lake520251995
Woodruff520252002
Wendover420111971
Beck419871973
Hardware Ranch420171995
Goshen320251968
Willow Creek320011997
Castleton319851969
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320251994
Uintah Nf319941987
Cleveland320192016
Leamington320161992
Goose Creek Mtn.320251997
Snowville320241999
Crawford Mts320152002
Wellington 3220252013
Grizzly Rdge220221987

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.