BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Arizona

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Arizona has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arizona is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.16–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arizona is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.16–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.171.8
20271.00.171.8
20281.00.171.8
20291.00.171.8
20301.00.161.8

Killdeer Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Killdeer in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo Verde2520131992
Palo Verde 21320252014
Araby1120231992
Mormon Lake719751968
Ajo620002000
Vicksburg419891986
Ajo 2420192010
Rose Wells319691968
Zeniff319841969
Florence319881970
Dateland320251991
Sunizona319971971
Hope 2320182015
Clay Spring320241992
Cactus Forest320251996
Black Mesa219951988
Wikieup220041992
New River220162014
Pomerene220221968
Patagonia220241968
Skull Valley 2220252025
Toroweap220052005
Maine219951992
Pinetop219941994
Alpine220251993

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.