BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Arizona

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Arizona has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arizona is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.19–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arizona is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.19–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.191.9
20261.00.191.9
20271.00.191.9
20281.00.191.9
20291.00.191.9

Killdeer Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Killdeer in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo Verde2520131992
Palo Verde 22120242014
Araby1120231992
Cactus Forest1020241996
Mormon Lake719751968
Ajo620002000
Vicksburg419891986
Williams420111999
Ajo 2420192010
Rose Wells319691968
Zeniff319841969
Florence319881970
Dateland320241991
Sunizona319971971
Hope 2320182015
Clay Spring320241992
Black Mesa219951988
Wikieup220041992
New River220162014
Pomerene220221968
Patagonia220241968
Toroweap220052005
Maine219951992
Pinetop219941994
Wickenburg220222018

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.