BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Idaho

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Idaho has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has collapsed in Idaho: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.005.2
20260.200.005.0
20270.000.004.8
20280.000.004.8
20290.000.004.8

Killdeer Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Killdeer in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenns Ferry5219861968
Acequia1920121979
Cascade1719841968
Blacks Creek1620171968
Cedar Hill1420241989
Baker1220241974
Mud Lake1120231988
Picabo1020211988
Gifford520171971
Springfield520181969
Ririe520231971
Bates520231988
Dougal Res520241988
Blackft Res420181984
Triangle420241985
Iron Springs420241988
Pasadena Val420161987
Naples320231972
Lolo Pass320081995
Pocatello320191979
Joel320241989
Carey320171989
Nezperce Nf319991992
Mivoden220181977
Centerville220191972

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.