BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in New Mexico has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Mexico is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New Mexico is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.001.9
20260.920.001.9
20270.900.001.9
20280.890.001.9
20290.870.001.9

Killdeer Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Killdeer in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 22220242022
Farmington1019871975
Hobbs720241994
Columbus720241992
San Antonio619771974
Angel Fire620021992
Raton519941994
Mesilla520001992
Pecos419921975
Mountainair420041998
Sabinoso420121980
Salt Lake420002000
Cooley Lake320241968
Roswell320191977
Caprock320241977
Deming319751968
Maljamar319771975
Counselor320132005
Laborcita320191992
Aztec319891988
Farley220181979
La Cienega219861969
Wagon Mound219781970
Tucumcari219751975
Valencia219971968

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.