BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Mississippi has surged: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+252%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Mississippi: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.42.58.4
20265.52.58.4
20275.52.68.5
20285.62.68.5
20295.62.78.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Killdeer in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dahomey Nwr2820242011
Commerce2319931966
Isola2020221968
Tippo1920241996
Macon1820241966
Panther Swamp Nwr1420182016
Winterville1420112009
Dundee820221970
Walthall819871972
Aberdeen820241970
Shelby720242009
Tallahatchie720241996
Olive Branch620011967
Cybur620191966
Utica520161966
Tchula 3520241995
Mt Carmel420011988
Columbia420181971
Scooba419801967
Holly Springs420092009
Moon420211996
Tchula 2419941976
Tchula319741971
Lake320241966
Weir320242007

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.