BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Virginia

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Virginia has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Virginia is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.43–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Virginia is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.43–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.442.6
20261.50.442.6
20271.50.442.6
20281.50.432.6
20291.50.432.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Killdeer in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cornland1120141975
White Stone920241966
Gladys920241994
Branchville820241966
Newbern719821970
Mannboro720241968
Pungo720241975
Backbay619741966
Newville620241990
Brodnax520241974
Newsoms520241973
Brandon520241994
Great Falls419761967
Natural Brid420241974
Wylliesburg420191976
Cape Charles420171998
David320111968
Amherst320231971
Carters Brdg320101966
Concord320111967
Surry320241979
Quinby320241967
Elamsville320101984
Moran320241997
Brandy Station320242022

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.