BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Minnesota has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.1 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.1 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.24.612
20268.24.612
20278.24.612
20288.24.612
20298.14.512

Killdeer Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Killdeer in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockhart4720241993
Chokio North4520241993
Chandler3720231969
Huntley3520241967
Chokio3520241969
Worthington2420242004
Beltrami2120241967
Big Stone2020121995
New London1920241994
Arlington1820241967
Redwood Fall1820241978
Appleton1820241978
Oklee1820211969
Courtland1720241978
Glyndon1620241978
Chatfield 21620242003
Le Roy1520241993
Fairmont1520231993
Maynard1420151968
Austin1420231993
Le Center1320231993
Tenney1220161978
Chatfield1119991967
Tracy1120242004
Ash Creek1020241975

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.