BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Minnesota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 4.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Minnesota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 4.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.54.812
20278.44.812
20288.44.712
20298.44.712
20308.44.712

Killdeer Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Killdeer in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North5420251993
Appleton3920251978
Huntley3720251967
Chokio3620251969
Worthington3520252004
Arlington3420251967
Fairmont3320251993
Glyndon2720251978
Redwood Fall2620251978
Tracy2620252004
Ash Creek2520251975
Chandler2420251969
Millville2320251967
Le Roy2220251993
Caledonia 22220252013
Big Stone2020121995
Knapp1920251967
Franklin1920251993
New London1920241994
Oklee1820211969
Chatfield 21620252003
Maynard1420151968
Austin1420231993
Courtland1320251978
Le Center1320251993

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.