BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Ohio

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Ohio has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+190%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Ohio: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161220
2026161220
2027161220
2028161220
2029171221

Killdeer Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Killdeer in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark7119951967
Napoleon6420241966
Lockport5320241966
Graytown4819841966
Cosmos4420191966
N Baltimore4320191968
Newport4319941966
Vickery4320241996
Harveysburg4219961966
No Kenton4120241966
Kunkle4020241992
Kenton3620241966
New Dover3020221966
Wilmington3019961966
Ash Ridge2820211992
Xenia2720181966
Pittsfield2620241992
Bloomville2520241992
Marion 22520242024
Botkins2420191992
Lucerne2420241992
Hiram2420211992
West Elkton2320121992
Harveysburg 22320241997
Kingsway2220241966

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.