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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Louisiana has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Louisiana: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Louisiana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.7–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Louisiana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.7–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.02.69.4
20276.02.69.5
20286.12.79.5
20296.12.79.6
20306.22.79.6

Killdeer Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Killdeer in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Transylvania4220251998
Kaplan2420231998
Forked Island 22420112010
River Road2320251987
Ltl Chenier2120251986
Maurice1920241988
Ltl Chenier 21820112010
Carlisle1519881968
Vinton 21320252011
Brousville1220251999
Rayville1120081967
Forked Island1120252008
Junior1019911987
Morgan City1019861967
Ramah1020251988
Richard1020251998
Grand Isle1020192010
Concord1020192006
Woodlawn1020212008
Port Allen1020242000
Cypress919871967
Fillmore719891968
Esther720251988
Freetown620191978
Keystone620131967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.