BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Illinois

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Illinois has surged: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+656%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Illinois: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Illinois is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Illinois is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241928
2026242028
2027242029
2028252029
2029252130

Killdeer Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Killdeer in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milford7120231966
Yale5820241993
Janesville4920241973
Minonk4520241971
Seneca4520241993
Marshall4320242001
Stillwell4220241971
Greenview4220241993
Dailey3820221967
Brnt Prairie3820241976
Le Roy3820241993
Sterling3820232001
Cameron3720241972
Sherrard3620241993
Fairland3520241967
Clayton3520242001
Buda3420231977
Fairbury3420241976
Yorkville3420192001
Fairdale3420242019
Athensville3320241971
Harristown3320242006
Monticello3220241978
Concord3220241967
Bradbury3120241972

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.