BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in South Carolina has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+95%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in South Carolina: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.972.7
20261.91.002.8
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.02.8
20292.01.12.9

Killdeer Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Killdeer in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foreston920192002
Pendleton819761968
Rome720241994
Green Sea720242010
Mount Pisgah620211998
New Holland520241968
Bishopville520241975
Salem Xrd520191983
Prosperity520221992
Anderson520171977
Owings420041992
Blacksburg420131998
Chesnee420151992
Coward320241992
Boykin Ml Pd319681967
Olar320182000
Pinewood320191998
Hardeeville220242005
Holly Hill220241973
Wagener220241978
Dillon220211993
Little Mtn219881967
Nixonville219951994
New Ellenton220242018
Whitmire220242010

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.