BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in South Carolina has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+141%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in South Carolina: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.02.8
20272.01.12.8
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.12.9
20302.01.12.9

Killdeer Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Killdeer in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Sea1220252010
Owings 21020252005
Foreston920192002
Pendleton819761968
Bishopville620251975
Mount Pisgah620211998
Nixville620252007
Rome520251994
Salem Xrd520191983
Ward520252017
Prosperity520221992
Anderson520171977
Owings420041992
Lowrys420252021
Blacksburg420131998
Chesnee420151992
Red Bluff420251997
New Holland320251968
Boykin Ml Pd319681967
Olar320182000
Pinewood320191998
Hardeeville220252005
Holly Hill220251973
Wagener220251978
Dillon220211993

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.