BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in New York

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in New York has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in New York. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New York is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.35–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New York is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.35–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.644.6
20262.50.574.5
20272.50.504.4
20282.40.424.3
20292.30.354.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Killdeer in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus1320001968
Orleans1220241967
E Youngstown1120231966
Churchville1120241968
Byron1020241967
Watertown820121967
Alder Creek820041968
Waddington819981981
Durham719761966
Macdougall720241969
Nashville720181967
Oneida720101968
Philadelphia720241980
Hauppauge620081987
Petersburg620121966
Rushville620241968
Branchport620241967
Hope Falls619941970
North Easton620241967
Cayuga520241969
Mendon520241967
Penfield520241968
Pulaski520241967
Argyle520241968
Fowler519681966

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.