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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Arkansas has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+159%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Arkansas: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arkansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Arkansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 5.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.85.312
20278.85.312
20288.95.412
20299.05.513
20309.15.613

Killdeer Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Killdeer in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso4820162010
Lafe3620222017
Whitton3419911967
Wilson3420251993
Dell3320252010
Ulm2820251986
West Tyler2219841967
Hickory Ridge1620222010
Augusta 21620162002
Harrisburg1220191967
Maynard1020251967
England820252010
Eudora720251967
Lockesburg720182011
Avoca620241967
Farwell620182010
Hughes520251969
Stark520251967
Zion520251970
Ashdown420231967
Blakely319991970
Gillett320252010
Locust Bayou220221967
Crows219911967
Poyen220071967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.