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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Florida

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Florida has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Florida: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Florida is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.392.4
20261.40.382.4
20271.40.362.4
20281.30.352.3
20291.30.332.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Killdeer in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kendall1519911987
Shawano 21420112004
Salvista1119791967
Shawano1120021987
Palmdale1020221987
Dale Mabry919881966
Indiantown920171966
Wildernes Pk920121992
Clewiston820232015
Webb720241990
Babcock Rnch719891988
Broad Branch620241971
Arbuckle620141987
Davie620111987
Ridge Harbor620241991
Childs520211966
Ft Lonesome520231967
Doctor Inlet520071968
Dowling Park520221987
Flemington519981988
Port St Joe419921983
Myakka Head420071966
Alturas419861971
Tamiami419711966
Nobleton420061988

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.