BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Colorado

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Colorado has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Colorado: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Colorado is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Colorado is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.004.4
20271.40.004.3
20281.30.004.2
20291.20.004.1
20301.10.004.0

Killdeer Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Killdeer in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle Bridge2719971992
Dolores2119871968
Kirk1720231992
Julesburg1520211998
Alamosa1420251988
Mica Butte1219871971
Fruita1220071988
Pagosa Spgs1119821969
Fort Morgan1120251996
Grover1020241992
Flagler1020251997
Prospect Val920001992
Gilpin820251970
Hudson820251988
Adams Co.820221989
Neegrande820251992
Lay820251996
Kiowa720181968
Wildhorse L720251988
Maybell620251970
Waverly620191988
Cokedale620251995
Boyero520171979
Kiowa 2520252019
Weston Pass520001994

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.