BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Colorado

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Colorado has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Colorado: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Colorado is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Colorado is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.6
20261.50.004.5
20271.40.004.3
20281.30.004.2
20291.20.004.1

Killdeer Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Killdeer in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle Bridge2719971992
Dolores2119871968
Kirk1720231992
Nunn1520211995
Julesburg1520211998
Hudson1420241988
Fort Morgan1420241996
Pinneo1220191973
Mica Butte1219871971
Fruita1220071988
Pagosa Spgs1119821969
Grover1020241992
Alamosa920241988
Prospect Val920001992
Wildhorse L820241988
Adams Co.820221989
Kiowa720181968
Yellowjacket Pass720241998
Walden620241990
Waverly620191988
Maybell520241970
Fleming520241968
Boyero520171979
Doyleville520231988
Last Chance 2520242017

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.