BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in South Dakota has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025125.218
2026115.118
2027115.018
2028114.918
2029114.817

Killdeer Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Killdeer in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White Lake7920111967
Isabel6320151990
Volga4620241967
Promise4320151971
Eagle Butte4320151990
Wilmot3720241967
Gettysburg3620231969
Howard3420241970
Laplant3120151971
Marcus3120151999
Turton3120241985
Conde3019841967
Roswell2820141967
Crow Creek2820231967
Forbes2720241967
Broadland2620171967
Gorman2520101979
Ft Thompson2420111967
Tripp2320241967
Lane 22220142000
Lennox2020241967
Long Lake1920191967
Lacreek1920231991
Britton1820231967
Cottonwood1820241992

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.