BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in South Dakota has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Dakota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in South Dakota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026125.218
2027115.218
2028115.118
2029115.018
2030114.917

Killdeer Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Killdeer in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White Lake7920111967
Isabel6320151990
Volga4620251967
Promise4320151971
Eagle Butte4320151990
Tripp4020251967
Wilmot3720251967
Gettysburg3620231969
Turton3520251985
Laplant3120151971
Marcus3120151999
Forbes3020251967
Conde3019841967
Roswell2820141967
Crow Creek2820231967
Broadland2620171967
Gorman2520101979
Lennox2420251967
Ft Thompson2420111967
Lacreek2420251991
Howard2320251970
Lane 22220142000
Long Lake1920191967
Britton1820231967
Cedar Pass1620251967

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.