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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Massachusetts has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Massachusetts: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.001.2
20260.420.001.1
20270.410.001.1
20280.390.001.1
20290.370.001.1

Killdeer Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Killdeer in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield420241968
Holden420211984
S Barre320241969
E Dennis219781977
Marion220241966
Wellfleet220071979
Prattville220161966
Warren220061968
Cummington 2220152015
Hancock220142001
Brockton120111975
Newburyport120221967
Maynard120211967
Littleton120221967
N Oxford120241969
Princeton119741972
E Pepperell119931966
Belchertown120211967
N Orange119991968
Cummington120131971
Chesterfield120181973
Cheshire119941970
Pittsfield120051968
Sheffield120131970
Monterey120232023

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.