BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Connecticut has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Connecticut is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Connecticut is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.2
20260.500.001.2
20270.490.001.2
20280.480.001.2
20290.480.001.2

Killdeer Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Killdeer in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buckingham520141966
Danbury520171968
Uncasville420241977
Woodstock220071971
Westbrook219941978
Mystic120221975
E Hartland119921966
Willimantic120161968
No Woodbury120241967
Sherman120091975
Greenwich119991978
Warren120071972
Long Hill120161974
Mid Haddam120191974
Southington120171974
New Hartford119871973
New Hartford120062006
Warren 2120232014
Granby120241989

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.