BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Tennessee has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tennessee is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tennessee is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.25.4
20263.31.25.4
20273.31.25.3
20283.31.25.3
20293.31.25.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Killdeer in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw3320121966
Collinwood1220241968
Pond Creek920241968
Soddy919811967
Humboldt620241966
Bradyville620211966
Mansfield520241971
Wrigley520211967
Corryton Rd520191966
Pawpaw 2520232013
Peytonsville420241966
Glen420241967
Walland419891966
Tiptonville320231969
Tibbs320241966
Belotes Bend320181966
Lovell320191967
Climer320041967
Jefferson Cty320111966
Jones Gap320191982
Signal Mtn220241981
Big Sandy220241966
Campbellsville220191968
Petersburg220191966
Tullahoma220151968

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.