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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Tennessee has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Tennessee: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tennessee is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tennessee is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20273.41.35.4
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20303.31.35.4

Killdeer Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Killdeer in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw3320121966
Pawpaw 22420252013
Humboldt1020251966
Soddy919811967
Tiptonville820251969
Brownsville720251967
Moscow620251967
Tibbs620251966
Peytonsville620251966
Bradyville620211966
Big Sandy520251966
Mansfield520251971
Collinwood520251968
Wrigley520211967
Corryton Rd520191966
Walland419891966
Belotes Bend320181966
Glen320251967
Lovell320191967
Climer320041967
Jefferson Cty320111966
Jones Gap320191982
Signal Mtn220241981
Campbellsville220191968
Lewis Forest220251966

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.