BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Kentucky has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Kentucky: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.52.28.8
20275.52.28.8
20285.52.28.8
20295.52.28.7
20305.52.28.7

Killdeer Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Killdeer in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrimac1620241967
Hodgenville 21520232008
Eastview1420251967
Kehoe1419921968
Goshen1219991967
Million1119861966
Pleasurevill1020251979
Bays Fork1020191999
Plum920251966
Keysburg820251968
Levee819821966
Iron Bridge719981966
Kings Mtn720251967
Hudson720251966
Boxville719831966
Gesling719721972
Cedar Grove620251966
Sulphur Lick620241967
Sunnybrook620221974
Hodgenville620031967
Morganfield620252022
Lovelacevile520251967
Canton520251969
Shiloh420251967
Riverqueen420252007

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.