BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.2–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20295.52.28.8

Killdeer Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Killdeer in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrimac1620241967
Hodgenville 21520232008
Kehoe1419921968
Pleasurevill1320241979
Goshen1219991967
Keysburg1120241968
Million1119861966
Morganfield1120242022
Bays Fork1020191999
Levee819821966
Iron Bridge719981966
Boxville719831966
Gesling719721972
Cedar Grove620241966
Sulphur Lick620241967
Sunnybrook620221974
Hodgenville620031967
Canton520241969
Hudson520241966
Eastview520241967
Hustonville420241967
Johnsonville420211966
Drakesboro419931971
Daniel Boone419881969
Dixie420191970

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.