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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in North Carolina has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in North Carolina: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Carolina is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Carolina is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.77.0
20265.43.87.1
20275.53.97.1
20285.64.07.2
20295.74.17.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Killdeer in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed2520241970
Dortches2120241990
Dudley1920242002
Jamesville1720241983
Pinetops1620241997
Rowland1220241990
Maple Hill1120232000
California1020131973
Cypress Lakes1020242004
Rose920241974
Lloyd Xroads920241991
Jarvisburg919991992
Jackson920171995
Rheasville920172005
Mooresville819961979
Genoa820241990
Hertford820241997
Siloam820242005
Congleton820242001
Cypress Cr720221994
Hamlet720242002
Sheffield720241991
Ernul620092002
Montague520241990
Biscoe520101990

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.