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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in North Carolina has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in North Carolina: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Carolina is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in North Carolina is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.67.0
20275.43.77.1
20285.43.77.2
20295.53.87.2
20305.63.97.3

Killdeer Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Killdeer in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed2420251970
Dudley1920252002
Pinetops1620241997
Jarvisburg 21420252000
Rose1320251974
Rowland1220241990
Dortches1220251990
California 21120252014
Maple Hill1120232000
Bethel1120252002
California1020131973
Lloyd Xroads920241991
Jarvisburg919991992
Jackson920171995
Rheasville920172005
Mooresville819961979
Jamesville820251983
Hertford820241997
Bullock820251999
Mooresville 2720252006
Cypress Cr720221994
Montague720251990
Congleton720252001
Supply620251992
Ernul620092002

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.