BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer Population Trend in Michigan

All statesShorebirds

Killdeer in Michigan has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Killdeer Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Killdeer Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.61–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.61–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.40.937.8
20264.30.857.7
20274.20.777.6
20284.10.697.5
20294.00.617.5

Killdeer Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Killdeer in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coopersville2720241979
Cedar Run2519991994
Ola2220241974
Drayton Plns2019871973
Maple Rapids1920231987
Holt1920241969
Tyre1819961967
Cohoctah1820242021
Adrian1620181966
St Charles1420191967
Fowlerville1420191974
Prattville1420211967
Hubbard Lake1419961973
S Lyons1419921966
Adair1419951974
Richmond1320241999
Deckerville1220241978
Owendale1020171978
New Troy920241971
Pleasant Val919971967
Lake City920221970
Lawrence820241969
Bell Oak820141966
Lapeer820242000
Belding720031983

Killdeer Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.