BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsShorebirds

Killdeer in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.004.5
20261.10.004.4
20271.00.004.3
20280.930.004.2
20290.840.004.2

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Killdeer in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS82024
Catarina 3TEXAS82024
Mirando CityTEXAS62012
Millett 2TEXAS62024
HondoTEXAS52024
ProgresoTEXAS52011
ZapataTEXAS41987
LaredoTEXAS42023
RandadoTEXAS32024
San YgnacioTEXAS31982
Encinal 2TEXAS32024
HeidelbergTEXAS32024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS32013
KingsvilleTEXAS22019
EncinalTEXAS22010
CatarinaTEXAS22010
La PryorTEXAS22017
El IndioTEXAS22007
RachalTEXAS12023
Agua NuevaTEXAS12018
George WestTEXAS12024
El SauzTEXAS12023
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
DilleyTEXAS12023
GuerraTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.