BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsShorebirds

Killdeer in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+276%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.005.6
20272.60.005.6
20282.60.005.6
20292.60.005.6
20302.60.005.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Killdeer in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo VerdeARIZONA252013
NilandCALIFORNIA142025
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA132025
ArabyARIZONA112023
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA112018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA112010
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA82025
AjoARIZONA62000
BrawleyCALIFORNIA62012
BlytheCALIFORNIA52003
VicksburgARIZONA41989
Ajo 2ARIZONA42019
FlorenceARIZONA31988
DatelandARIZONA32025
Cactus ForestARIZONA32025
Hope 2ARIZONA32018
WikieupARIZONA22004
New RiverARIZONA22016
WickenburgARIZONA22022
HopeARIZONA22004
Casa GrandeARIZONA22023
OnyxCALIFORNIA22001
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22000
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA21998
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.