BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastShorebirds

Killdeer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.45–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.45–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.453.7
20272.10.453.7
20282.10.453.7
20292.10.453.7
20302.10.453.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Killdeer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitlandMARYLAND151998
BlackbirdDELAWARE132025
Snow HillMARYLAND91976
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE71991
Holleyville 2DELAWARE72024
HarmonyMARYLAND72017
EastonMARYLAND72025
MardelaMARYLAND72019
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY72011
MillsboroDELAWARE62025
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE62025
Furnace TownMARYLAND62025
HauppaugeNEW-YORK62008
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT52014
DanburyCONNECTICUT52017
MillingtonMARYLAND52025
CokesburyMARYLAND52025
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY51977
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY51982
FredericaDELAWARE42025
MiltonDELAWARE42016
PomfretMARYLAND42022
MadisonMARYLAND42025
NewarkMARYLAND42025
WalnutMARYLAND42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.