BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsShorebirds

Killdeer in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
350Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.70–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.70–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.812.8
20261.80.792.8
20271.80.762.8
20281.70.732.7
20291.70.702.7

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Killdeer in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmegaOHIO192024
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA152024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA151977
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA151979
KehoeKENTUCKY141992
Coal RunOHIO131992
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA132024
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA112024
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA112024
GreensportALABAMA102024
OakmanGEORGIA102024
JenningsMARYLAND102024
StonecreekOHIO102024
Mt StormWEST-VIRGINIA101975
ChoccoloccoALABAMA92024
Greasy RidgeOHIO91991
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA92024
SoddyTENNESSEE91981
Mt OliveALABAMA82024
LakeviewALABAMA82024
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA82024
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA82001
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA82023
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA82022
TradeALABAMA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.