BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

Killdeer in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
199Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.1
20271.20.003.0
20281.20.002.9
20291.10.002.8
20300.960.002.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Killdeer in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON272025
Pablo Res.MONTANA212025
Green RiverWYOMING201984
Patrick DrawWYOMING191980
Seedskadee 2WYOMING182024
CascadeIDAHO171984
Church HillMONTANA172025
Clyde ParkMONTANA172025
Clover CreekOREGON172025
BridgeportOREGON132025
Fort LoganMONTANA112025
Willow CreekMONTANA101981
MidvaleWYOMING92025
PathfinderWYOMING92025
LayCOLORADO82025
Neponset ResUTAH82018
St MaryMONTANA72008
VictorMONTANA72025
ChewelahWASHINGTON72021
MaybellCOLORADO62025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON62023
NowoodWYOMING62025
SaveryWYOMING61995
LysiteWYOMING62024
WorlandWYOMING62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.