BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

Killdeer in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
196Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.1
20261.30.003.0
20271.20.002.9
20281.10.002.8
20291.00.002.8

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Killdeer in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.MONTANA252024
SpartaOREGON202001
Green RiverWYOMING201984
Patrick DrawWYOMING191980
Seedskadee 2WYOMING182024
CascadeIDAHO171984
Willow Creek 2MONTANA162024
CodyWYOMING142024
LaurelMONTANA112022
KalispellMONTANA102024
Willow CreekMONTANA101981
Wolf CreekMONTANA102022
NowoodWYOMING92024
PathfinderWYOMING92024
WalcottWYOMING92024
RaynesfordMONTANA82024
Fort LoganMONTANA82024
BridgeportOREGON82022
Neponset ResUTAH82018
BasinWYOMING82024
St MaryMONTANA72008
PolsonMONTANA72024
ChewelahWASHINGTON72021
MidvaleWYOMING72024
Threemile WaMONTANA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.