BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaShorebirds

Killdeer in Coastal California has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 0.41–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 0.41–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.696.7
20263.60.626.6
20273.50.556.5
20283.50.486.4
20293.40.416.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Killdeer in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlennCALIFORNIA602023
AtwaterCALIFORNIA572012
AthloneCALIFORNIA252007
ShafterCALIFORNIA221989
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA222019
CordovaCALIFORNIA211981
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA182024
OrlandCALIFORNIA172022
ZamoraCALIFORNIA172024
PowayCALIFORNIA151980
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA142004
TranquillityCALIFORNIA112024
HughsonCALIFORNIA102024
CaruthersCALIFORNIA101987
ColmaCALIFORNIA91972
AuburnCALIFORNIA91980
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA92024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA92024
TiptonCALIFORNIA91997
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA92024
PenningtonCALIFORNIA82024
GravesboroCALIFORNIA81995
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA82023
SisquocCALIFORNIA82013
SangerCALIFORNIA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.