BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaShorebirds

Killdeer in Coastal California has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.39–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.39–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.676.6
20273.50.606.5
20283.50.536.4
20293.40.466.4
20303.30.396.3

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Killdeer in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AtwaterCALIFORNIA572012
GlennCALIFORNIA302025
AthloneCALIFORNIA252007
ShafterCALIFORNIA221989
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA222019
CordovaCALIFORNIA211981
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA182024
OrlandCALIFORNIA172022
PowayCALIFORNIA151980
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA142004
HughsonCALIFORNIA142025
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA132025
TranquillityCALIFORNIA112024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA112025
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA112025
CaruthersCALIFORNIA101987
ColmaCALIFORNIA91972
AuburnCALIFORNIA91980
WestleyCALIFORNIA92025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA92025
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA92024
TiptonCALIFORNIA91997
GravesboroCALIFORNIA81995
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA82023
SisquocCALIFORNIA82013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.