BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaShorebirds

Killdeer in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.12–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.12–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.263.1
20261.60.233.1
20271.60.193.0
20281.60.153.0
20291.50.123.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Killdeer in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KendallFLORIDA151991
Shawano 2FLORIDA142011
SalvistaFLORIDA111979
ShawanoFLORIDA112002
PalmdaleFLORIDA102022
Dale MabryFLORIDA91988
IndiantownFLORIDA92017
Wildernes PkFLORIDA92012
ClewistonFLORIDA82023
WebbFLORIDA72024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA71989
ArbuckleFLORIDA62014
DavieFLORIDA62011
Ridge HarborFLORIDA62024
ChildsFLORIDA52021
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA52023
FlemingtonFLORIDA51998
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42007
AlturasFLORIDA41986
TamiamiFLORIDA41971
NobletonFLORIDA42006
Devils GardnFLORIDA42024
AlvaFLORIDA42012
Weaver StnFLORIDA42019
Sandy 2FLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.