BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionShorebirds

Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.516
2027127.516
2028127.516
2029127.516
2030127.516

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO711995
VickeryOHIO612025
NapoleonOHIO552025
LockportOHIO512025
GraytownOHIO481984
N BaltimoreOHIO432019
PackertownINDIANA322004
EllisINDIANA322024
FestinaIOWA322025
Packertown 2INDIANA312025
StratfordWISCONSIN282025
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN282025
LimestoneOHIO272025
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN262024
N AndoverWISCONSIN262025
MiddleburyINDIANA252025
LagrangeINDIANA252025
BeloitWISCONSIN242025
MillvilleMINNESOTA232025
HoltMICHIGAN222025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA222025
Columbia CtyINDIANA212024
AnnatonWISCONSIN212025
KnoxINDIANA202025
KewannaINDIANA202022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.