BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionShorebirds

Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.416
2026127.516
2027127.516
2028127.516
2029127.516

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Killdeer in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO711995
NapoleonOHIO642024
LockportOHIO532024
GraytownOHIO481984
N BaltimoreOHIO432019
VickeryOHIO432024
MiddleburyINDIANA412024
FestinaIOWA352024
PackertownINDIANA322004
EllisINDIANA322024
StratfordWISCONSIN292024
BeloitWISCONSIN282024
HollandWISCONSIN282024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN272024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN262024
WiotaWISCONSIN262024
KielWISCONSIN252022
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN232024
AnnatonWISCONSIN232024
OlaMICHIGAN222024
KingswayOHIO222024
Columbia CtyINDIANA212024
KewannaINDIANA202022
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN201987
Rolling PrWISCONSIN202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.