BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

Killdeer in Great Basin has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
237Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Great Basin is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Great Basin is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.006.3
20273.00.006.2
20282.90.006.1
20292.70.005.9
20302.60.005.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Killdeer in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenns FerryIDAHO521986
DorrisCALIFORNIA422019
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON402025
WapatoWASHINGTON382022
Bear RiverUTAH342025
LikelyCALIFORNIA292025
PotholesWASHINGTON262023
OrdnanceOREGON251979
MesaWASHINGTON222008
QuincyWASHINGTON212024
HarwoodWASHINGTON201997
AcequiaIDAHO192012
UmatillaOREGON182025
Blacks CreekIDAHO162017
FallonNEVADA152025
Cedar HillIDAHO142024
MerrillOREGON142022
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON142022
Iron GateCALIFORNIA132019
IngallsCALIFORNIA122025
BakerIDAHO122024
ZumwaltOREGON122005
YakimaWASHINGTON122025
Alvord LakeOREGON112025
Willow SpgOREGON111971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.