BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionShorebirds

Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968
111Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029
0.49Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.395% range
±11.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.790.002.6
20260.710.002.6
20270.640.002.5
20280.570.002.4
20290.490.002.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Cedar RunMICHIGAN251999
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN141996
GilmanWISCONSIN112024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN91997
Lake CityMICHIGAN92022
BrainerdMINNESOTA82024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA72023
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN61992
PickfordMICHIGAN62024
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN62004
GreenbushMINNESOTA62024
IronsMICHIGAN51989
HerronMICHIGAN52016
Rib LakeWISCONSIN52024
CathroMICHIGAN42016
BemidjiMINNESOTA41980
WaskishMINNESOTA42022
BagleyMINNESOTA42006
WarroadMINNESOTA42023
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42010
BootjackMICHIGAN32022
IshpemingMICHIGAN31994
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN32014
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN32011
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.