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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionShorebirds

Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.002.6
20260.710.002.6
20270.640.002.5
20280.570.002.4
20290.490.002.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Killdeer in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar RunMICHIGAN251999
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN141996
GilmanWISCONSIN112024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN91997
Lake CityMICHIGAN92022
BrainerdMINNESOTA82024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA72023
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN61992
PickfordMICHIGAN62024
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN62004
GreenbushMINNESOTA62024
IronsMICHIGAN51989
HerronMICHIGAN52016
Rib LakeWISCONSIN52024
CathroMICHIGAN42016
BemidjiMINNESOTA41980
WaskishMINNESOTA42022
BagleyMINNESOTA42006
WarroadMINNESOTA42023
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42010
BootjackMICHIGAN32022
IshpemingMICHIGAN31994
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN32014
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN32011
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.