BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.6–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.6–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.02.79.4
20276.02.69.4
20286.02.69.4
20296.02.69.3
20305.92.69.3

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA302016
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO271997
WakaTEXAS272025
YoderWYOMING212025
HookerOKLAHOMA182025
GruverTEXAS182025
KirkCOLORADO172023
PanhandleTEXAS172025
JulesburgCOLORADO152021
ClaytonvilleTEXAS142022
PlymellKANSAS132025
Mica ButteCOLORADO121987
DaltonNEBRASKA122025
LingleWYOMING122024
Fort MorganCOLORADO112025
ChampionNEBRASKA112018
GroverCOLORADO102024
FlaglerCOLORADO102025
BrownsonNEBRASKA102025
HardestyOKLAHOMA102024
CactusTEXAS102025
Prospect ValCOLORADO92000
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA92025
GilpinCOLORADO82025
HudsonCOLORADO82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.