BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.6–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.6–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.12.79.5
20266.12.79.5
20276.12.79.5
20286.12.79.5
20296.02.69.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PlymellKANSAS432024
PaxtonNEBRASKA302016
WakaTEXAS282024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO271997
KirkCOLORADO172023
HookerOKLAHOMA172024
NunnCOLORADO152021
JulesburgCOLORADO152021
HudsonCOLORADO142024
Fort MorganCOLORADO142024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA142024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS142022
PanhandleTEXAS132024
YoderWYOMING132024
PinneoCOLORADO122019
Mica ButteCOLORADO121987
TwichellTEXAS122023
LingleWYOMING122024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA112024
ChampionNEBRASKA112018
GroverCOLORADO102024
BrownsonNEBRASKA102021
HardestyOKLAHOMA102024
FrionaTEXAS102024
GruverTEXAS102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.