BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainShorebirds

Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+188%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
310Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.13.6
20262.92.23.6
20272.92.23.7
20283.02.23.7
20293.02.33.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA252024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA212024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA192024
MaconMISSISSIPPI182024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA172024
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA162024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA112023
CornlandVIRGINIA112014
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA102013
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA102024
WadleyGEORGIA92024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA92024
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA92024
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA91999
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA92017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA92017
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA92019
Rock ChapelALABAMA82024
Ware CoGEORGIA82024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI81987
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI82024
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA82024
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA82024
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.