BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainShorebirds

Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+188%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
310Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.13.6
20262.92.23.6
20272.92.23.7
20283.02.23.7
20293.02.33.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Killdeer in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA252024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA212024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA192024
MaconMISSISSIPPI182024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA172024
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA162024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA112023
CornlandVIRGINIA112014
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA102013
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA102024
WadleyGEORGIA92024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA92024
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA92024
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA91999
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA92017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA92017
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA92019
Rock ChapelALABAMA82024
Ware CoGEORGIA82024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI81987
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI82024
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA82024
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA82024
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.