BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Killdeer in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969
124Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Killdeer has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029
20Projected 2029 index
15–2595% range
±23.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025201524
2026201524
2027201525
2028201525
2029201525

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Killdeer in Prairie Potholes.
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA792011
LockhartMINNESOTA472024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA462024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA452024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA452024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA452009
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA432012
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA422023
MccallsburgIOWA372024
ChandlerMINNESOTA372023
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA372024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA362023
ZearingIOWA351995
HuntleyMINNESOTA352024
ChokioMINNESOTA352024
KanawhaIOWA342024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA342019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA342024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA322024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA322024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA312024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA302024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA301984
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA281983
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA282014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.