BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Killdeer in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201524
2026201524
2027201525
2028201525
2029201525

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Killdeer in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA792011
LockhartMINNESOTA472024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA462024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA452024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA452024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA452009
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA432012
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA422023
MccallsburgIOWA372024
ChandlerMINNESOTA372023
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA372024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA362023
ZearingIOWA351995
HuntleyMINNESOTA352024
ChokioMINNESOTA352024
KanawhaIOWA342024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA342019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA342024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA322024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA322024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA312024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA302024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA301984
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA281983
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA282014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.