BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Killdeer in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Killdeer In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201524
2027201524
2028201525
2029201525
2030201525

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Killdeer in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA792011
MccallsburgIOWA602025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA542025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA542025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA482025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA462025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA452009
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA432012
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA422023
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA402025
AppletonMINNESOTA392025
KanawhaIOWA382025
TitonkaIOWA372025
HuntleyMINNESOTA372025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA372025
ChokioMINNESOTA362025
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA362023
ZearingIOWA351995
WorthingtonMINNESOTA352025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA352025
ArlingtonMINNESOTA342025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA342019
FairmontMINNESOTA332025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA302025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA301984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.