BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauShorebirds

Killdeer in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
187Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.002.3
20270.030.002.2
20280.000.002.2
20290.000.002.2
20300.000.002.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Killdeer in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DoloresCOLORADO211987
AlamosaCOLORADO142025
FruitaCOLORADO122007
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO111982
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO101987
KamasUTAH92025
HannaUTAH72024
CokedaleCOLORADO62025
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO62002
Alton 2UTAH62025
Weston PassCOLORADO52000
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO52025
ParlinCOLORADO42019
San LuisCOLORADO42015
PaoniaCOLORADO42024
MoscaCOLORADO42024
Cortez 2COLORADO42017
PecosNEW-MEXICO41992
MountainairNEW-MEXICO42004
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO42000
BeckUTAH41987
Rose WellsARIZONA31969
ZeniffARIZONA31984
YampaCOLORADO32023
MoffatCOLORADO32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.