BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestShorebirds

Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.001.4
20260.490.001.3
20270.440.001.3
20280.380.001.2
20290.330.001.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South ElmaWASHINGTON132024
CoquilleOREGON92022
Warm BeachWASHINGTON92017
YrekaCALIFORNIA82019
SalemOREGON72024
AdairOREGON62024
DaytonOREGON62024
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
Martins FyCALIFORNIA51976
EverettWASHINGTON52024
RaymondWASHINGTON52021
Bay ViewWASHINGTON52017
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA41970
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA42017
UmpquaOREGON42024
CanbyOREGON42024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON42024
WinberryOREGON32023
DerbyOREGON31993
ElktonOREGON32024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON32024
ScappooseOREGON32023
CamasWASHINGTON32009
MukilteoWASHINGTON32024
YakutatALASKA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.