BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestShorebirds

Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Killdeer In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.4
20270.490.001.3
20280.440.001.3
20290.390.001.2
20300.330.001.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Killdeer in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdairOREGON282025
South ElmaWASHINGTON132024
CanbyOREGON122025
DaytonOREGON112025
CoquilleOREGON92022
Warm BeachWASHINGTON92017
YrekaCALIFORNIA82019
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
Martins FyCALIFORNIA51976
SalemOREGON52025
EverettWASHINGTON52024
RaymondWASHINGTON52021
Bay ViewWASHINGTON52017
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA41970
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA42017
GarfieldOREGON42025
ElktonOREGON42025
McminnvilleOREGON42025
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON42024
UmpquaOREGON32025
WinberryOREGON32023
DerbyOREGON31993
Sams ValleyOREGON32025
ScappooseOREGON32025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.