BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.26.312
20269.26.312
20279.26.412
20289.36.412
20299.36.412

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MisslerKANSAS392019
KenesawNEBRASKA352024
SurpriseNEBRASKA352024
BelvidereNEBRASKA342024
St JohnKANSAS262019
Piester LakeNEBRASKA232024
KearneyNEBRASKA212024
SumnerNEBRASKA212024
HamptonNEBRASKA212024
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA201994
BeaverOKLAHOMA192018
CoopertonOKLAHOMA182024
ColonyOKLAHOMA181995
AlbertKANSAS172024
TableNEBRASKA162024
HodgesKANSAS152014
Crescent LkNEBRASKA152017
BrownleeNEBRASKA152024
WakitaOKLAHOMA152016
JamestownKANSAS132024
DamarKANSAS132016
StrattonNEBRASKA132024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA132024
CovertKANSAS122024
Jewell 2KANSAS122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.