BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Killdeer In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.16.312
20279.26.312
20289.26.312
20299.26.412
20309.26.412

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SurpriseNEBRASKA402025
MisslerKANSAS392019
BelvidereNEBRASKA312025
KenesawNEBRASKA282025
St JohnKANSAS262019
HamptonNEBRASKA232025
AlbertKANSAS212025
SumnerNEBRASKA212025
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA201994
BeaverOKLAHOMA192018
ColonyOKLAHOMA181995
LoganKANSAS172025
CulbertsonNEBRASKA172025
BerwetKANSAS162025
TableNEBRASKA162025
HodgesKANSAS152014
WakitaOKLAHOMA152016
KearneyNEBRASKA142025
SolomonKANSAS132025
DamarKANSAS132016
ChambersNEBRASKA132025
BookerTEXAS132025
LibertyNEBRASKA122003
Swan LakeNEBRASKA122025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.