BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Killdeer In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+392%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 19–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 19–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211725
2027221826
2028221826
2029221826
2030231927

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar ValleyIOWA681997
KunkleOHIO652025
W LafayetteINDIANA642025
Davis CornerIOWA622025
StetMISSOURI541995
BryantIOWA532025
PontiacILLINOIS472025
SextonINDIANA472024
ShelbyvilleINDIANA472025
KentonOHIO462025
MinonkILLINOIS452024
CubaINDIANA452025
DecaturINDIANA442025
TiptonIOWA442025
CosmosOHIO442019
NewportOHIO431994
HarveysburgOHIO421996
HumboldtILLINOIS412025
BrooklynIOWA412025
No KentonOHIO402025
StillwellILLINOIS392025
GulfportILLINOIS382025
SterlingILLINOIS382023
MontpelierINDIANA382024
GazaIOWA382025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.