BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Killdeer In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieShorebirds

Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+379%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Killdeer has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Killdeer In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211725
2026221826
2027221826
2028221826
2029221926

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Killdeer in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MilfordILLINOIS712023
Cedar ValleyIOWA681997
YaleILLINOIS582024
GalvestonINDIANA552024
TiptonIOWA542024
StetMISSOURI541995
W LafayetteINDIANA522024
GazaIOWA522023
JanesvilleILLINOIS492024
SextonINDIANA472024
MinonkILLINOIS452024
SenecaILLINOIS452024
DecaturINDIANA442024
CosmosOHIO442019
MarshallILLINOIS432024
NewportOHIO431994
StillwellILLINOIS422024
GreenviewILLINOIS422024
HarveysburgOHIO421996
MilroyINDIANA412024
No KentonOHIO412024
KunkleOHIO402024
MonticelloINDIANA392024
RaymondWISCONSIN392024
DaileyILLINOIS382022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.